KOSPI 6,000 Era Why Samsung and SK Hynix Are Still a Buy According to Analysts

The KOSPI index has officially entered the 6,000 era, but according to market strategists, this is just a stopover, not the final destination. The rally is fueled by three core drivers: policy momentum from the new administration, expectations of monetary easing, and a significant improvement in semiconductor earnings. Among these, the semiconductor sector stands out as the primary engine, with AI-related investments by global hyperscalers continuing to drive demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Data from Nomura and Hana Securities projects combined operating profits for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to reach approximately 450 trillion KRW this year, supporting further index upside toward 7,900 points.

The AI Inference Era and Memory Demand

The transition from AI training to inference is a critical inflection point. Inference requires significantly more memory and faster, higher-specification DRAM. This shift directly benefits the three global memory leaders: Micron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix. According to Hana Securities' semiconductor analyst, Kim Rok-ko, Samsung Electronics has a target price of 250,000 KRW, while SK Hynix is projected to reach 1.5 million KRW, implying substantial upside potential from current levels.

DDR4 Price Surge and Supply Constraints

A key indicator is the price trajectory of DDR4 8Gb DRAM, which has surged past $3.5 per unit. The slope of this price increase, while slightly moderating, remains steep by historical standards. Analysts believe the supply shortage will persist at least until late 2027, driven by the sustained increase in global AI-related imports, as highlighted in a recent Federal Reserve working paper. This data shows a dramatic and ongoing rise in AI-related import volumes worldwide.

Comparison: Current Semiconductor Cycle vs. Historical Cycles

The current cycle differs fundamentally from past booms. While the pace of increase may cause short-term volatility, the underlying demand from AI infrastructure investment provides a more durable foundation. The 'Korea Discount' factor, historically linked to short profit cycles, is gradually being resolved as this cycle extends to 3-5 years. According to community consensus on global tech forums, the focus is shifting from cyclical fears to structural growth.

Beyond Semiconductors: SMR and Cosmetics

Analysts recommend three key sectors for the first half of 2026: semiconductors, Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and nuclear energy, and cosmetics. The cosmetics sector, currently overlooked despite a steady increase in export volumes across Korea's 13 major export items, is identified as a potential dark horse. The strategy is to accumulate positions cautiously, expecting a significant rally by year-end.

In summary, the KOSPI 6,000 rally is supported by strong fundamentals, not just liquidity. The US economy, despite a headline GDP of 1.4% in Q4, shows underlying strength when adjusting for the temporary government shutdown effect. The US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index has surged to its highest level since the post-pandemic rebound in June 2020, directly correlating with a rise in Korean exports. While uncertainties around Fed policy and tariffs persist, the prevailing view is that a rate cut cycle will begin in the second half of 2026, providing further tailwinds. Investors are advised to focus on sector leaders with clear earnings momentum.

📅 Information as of: 2026-02-27

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